Stefan Dodds, University of Winnipeg

Fri. Jan. 12 12:30 PM - Fri. Jan. 12 01:30 PM
Location: 3BC55

“Strategy or Protest? The Curious Case of Declined Ballots in Manitoba Elections”

Abstract: Voters in Manitoba have the option of (privately) declining their ballot in provincial elections, effectively exercising a “none of the above” option. The existence of declining behavior is curious since voting is costly and a declined ballot cannot directly alter the outcome of the election. This paper first outlines a simple choice model to capture key factors motivating a voter to decline. Then, using Manitoba provincial general elections data for 1999-2019, the determinants of declined-ballot frequency at the ridings-level are estimated empirically. Controlling for general election and incumbency effects, the frequency of declining is shown to be sensitive to election closeness, but also to the roster of “fringe” party candidates on the ballot. The results suggest that the decision to decline responds to both instrumental as well as expressive considerations. However, these effects are to a large extent absent for rejected ballots, despite their similar interpretation as a form of protest.